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There were 28 participating astrologers who matched natal charts with CPIs. Success, Carlson states, would be evaluated by the frequency of combined first and second choices, which is the correct protocol for this unconventional format. In addition to the ranking test of first, second, and third best fit, the astrologers were tested for their ability to rate the same CPIs according to a scale of accuracy. This task allowed for finer discrimination within a greater range of choices. This observation is scarcely relevant, given the stated success criteria of the first and second choice frequencies combined.
Then, to determine whether the astrologers were successful, Carlson directs our attention to the rate for the third place choices, which, as already noted, was consistent with chance.
Thus he declares that the combined first two choices were not chosen at a significant frequency. This conclusion, however, ignores the stated success criteria and is in fact untrue. He shows a weighted histogram and a best linear fit graph to illustrate each of these three groups of ratings.
Carlson directs our attention to the first choice graph as support for his conclusion for this test. The slope is actually slightly downward.
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The graphs for the other two choices are not remarked upon, but show slightly positive slopes. These point ratings should not be grouped as though they were quantitatively related to the later three-choice test. Volunteers were divided into a test group and a control group. Members of the test group were each given three choices, all of the same Sun sign, one of which was interpreted from their natal chart Carlson, For the results of this test, Carlson shows a comparison of the frequencies of the correct chart as first, second, and third choices for the test group and the control group again ignoring his stated protocol to combine the frequencies of the first two choices.
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However, he does note an unexpected result for the control group, which was able to choose the correct chart at a very high frequency. He calculates this to be at 2. It is reasonable to think that the astrologers could write good quality chart interpretations after having successfully matched charts with CPI profiles. This raises suspicion that the data might have been switched, perhaps inadvertently, but this is unverifiable speculation Vidmar, Like the participating astrologers, the student volunteers were also given a rating test; in this case for the sample chart interpretations they were given.
They were asked to rate, on a scale of 1 to 10, the accuracy of each subsection of the natal chart interpretations written by the astrologers. This test would potentially have high interest to astrologers because of the distinction it made between personality and current situation, which is a distinction that is not typically covered in personality tests.
Also, the higher sensitivity of a rating test could provide insight, at least as confirmation or denial, into the extraordinary statistical fluctuation seen in the three-choice ranking test. However, based on a few unexpected results, Carlson decided that there was no guarantee that the participants had followed his instructions for this test. As an additional test in this part of the experiment, the student volunteers were asked to choose from among three CPI profiles the one that was based on the results of their completed CPI questionnaire.
The other two profiles offered were taken from other student volunteers and randomly added. Of the 83 volunteers who completed the natal chart interpretation choices, only 56 completed this task. As usual, Carlson compared the results of the three choices for the test and control groups taken individually instead of the frequency of the first two choices taken together.
Furthermore, in contravention to the logic of control group design, Carlson compares the two groups against chance instead of against each other Ertel, He found no significant difference from chance for the two groups. The disappointing number of students who completed this task, despite having endured the question CPI questionnaire, suggests that the students might have been much less motivated than the astrologers, for whom the stakes were higher Ertel, The CPI matching tasks, for both the volunteers and the astrologers, were especially challenging because of the three-choice format.
How about the paper on the evolution of bipedalism that appears to simply accept the existence of sasquatch as a proven fact and references the Patterson-Gimlin film? As to the "rigorous experimentalist Dean Radin" - does that include his simply assuming that psi information can and does exist everywhere and can be accessed at all times, in order for him to say that a dog in someone else's study is psychic?
How does assuming the existence of that which you hope to prove when looking at someones else's research relate to the journals advice to authors that papers should "conform to the rigorous standards of observational techniques and logical argument"? Didn't the Carlson study also find that the test subjects themselves couldn't identify their own CPI? It seems to me, then, that what the study really showed is that the CPI isn't a good way to distinguish people's personalities in a test like this. Of course, pretty much all woo proponents operate this way.
Posted by: Chayanov August 04, at PM. AvalonXQ: Even if it is true, it probably has something to do with the fact that people lie to themselves a lot. Did I say anywhere that I believed in astrology? No, I didn't. The point was that the JSE has legitimate peer-review. And Jimmy Blue, you're dismissing the dog study simply because it suggests an anomaly. You should go back and read the history of science. You guys dismiss the journal simply because it published an article about the Loch Ness Monster and without even delving into the evidence presented in the paper. Personally, I'm perfectly fine with not bothering to look at the Loch Ness Monster paper before dismissing it.
Seeing how, y'know, we've checked the entire goddamn loch and found absolutely nothing! The only interesting part was at the end:. Consequently it is published not as a Research Article but as an Essay. Did I say you believed in astrology? No I didn't. Everything I wrote above was about their peer review process. Their reviewers accepted the sentence:.
Regardless of whether astrology is true or not, that sentence is utter bollocks, isn't it.
Astrology | SpringerLink
It indicates how low the bar has been set by the reviewers and the editorial board. I would not accept that statement from an eight year old. The editor and the reviewers not only pass it, but allow the researchers to claim that their study demonstrates that astrology is a stronger influence than both genetics and culture.
Notice, I am not just laughing at the idea of astrology, I am saying that the researchers have not justified their claims, and the reviewers haven't responded to their glaring and laughable errors. That is why this journal is a joke and its editors and reviewers are weak-minded. That is my claim, and there, above, is my evidence.
A double-blind test of astrology
Rather than just repeating your assertion that we are dismissing things out of hand, how about dealing with the issues we have raised? Do you expect anyone not to dismiss out of hand the idea that a curse can "possibly" cause serious human deformities? Posted by: yakaru August 04, at PM. Where did I say that was the reason I dismissed it, or are you just parroting the usual psuedo-scientist's defensive response? Oh go on then I'll bite, why should I and how do you know I am not already familiar with this?
So, you know for a fact that I didn't read the paper then? How do you know this? You aren't just parroting the usual pseudo-scientists assumptions, are you? MrEvidential, summarized: "La-la-la! I'm not listening to your actual complaints! I'm making up my own lame excuses for you so that I can inflate my ego and act superior! Here's a hint, MrEvidential: If someone links to a web page on a logical fallacy to make a point, he's not "dismissing it just because it has an anomaly.
Additionally, you seem to be missing the whole point behind peer review. It's Cargo Cult Science all over again. Note on the Loch Ness monster: Something that big living in the lake with no biological impact and able to evade all attempts at detection other than tourists with fuzzy cameras? If someone could get quality evidence for something like that, it'd be plastered all over every TV Network as real scientists look it over. Skeptio, thanks, this post is just what I was asking for in my original comment.
While I think some criticisms of your criticism of the criticism of Carlson can still be made, at least when people search with Google and the appropriate keywords, something will be there, whereas before there was nothing at all but multiple copies of the "press release" of not Ertel, but some astrology PR institute. Yakaru, you say that "a commenter on another thread reccommended [the dog] study as a model of excellence. I don't know who or what you are referring to, since the only reference to that study I am aware of was by me, and I didn't recommend it in that way.
In fact I said I was "prima facie skeptical", and indicated that I thought a main problem was that they provided no evidence that they did adequate blinding. You criticized the study originally and apparently again this time by suggesting that the statistical design was seriously flawed. You said "Six behavioural traits were correlated with ten astrological traits.
All they found was some kind of "strong" association between the angle of Jupiter and the sun, and extroversion. The other measures fail ed. Of course, they don't put it like that in the article. But of course, a strong association correlation of that sort is a positive result, and apparently it was a statistically significant one.
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You suggest that the lack of other significant correlations renders this positive correlation irrelevant, worth emphasizing with a taunting "fail" in boldface, but as far as I can tell, given the statistical design of the experiment, this is not true at all.